Behold the power of Boris Watch – no sooner had I snarked that the crime maps weren’t updated for October yet than they were, er, updated for October, at least for the original pre-Boris site (the Boris site is still stuck at September). Key point for me is that homicide number – 11 in the month, up from 8 the previous month, but the trend is still reducing to moving average of 12 a month over a five month period (since the peak of 17 in May is now out of the figures – unless there’s a particularly bad month in December or January it’ll drop to nearer 10 when the July peak moves out). That’s now tracking about 40% lower than in late 2003/2004 and 9% lower year-on-year.
As for the rest, the usual headline figures (theft, knife crime, gun crime) are still falling in with the exception of rape, which is sharply up, although whether this is better reporting or an underlying serious issue (more serious than the perennially important issue of violence against women, that is) is unclear from the bare statistics, as usual. How are those rape crisis centres coming on, anyway?
The next thing to watch out for is a rise in robbery due to the economic situation – this is a fairly well known effect of recessions, with more people out of work and greater opportunity and incentive to thieve. With that in mind, I note that suburban Redbridge, Havering, Barking & Dagenham, Hillingdon, Harrow and Richmond have seen fairly sharp rises in robberies over the month, from admittedly low bases. In the city proper, Westminster, Camden, Southwark and Tower Hamlets have also seen increases. However, of those, Harrow and Richmond are the only boroughs I can find with rising theft over the last 12 months.
I may have to start doing some proper continuous analysis of robbery figures as the recession bites. Anyone able to give me a lesson in those spiffing online analysis tools Alex used with the BNP data?
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