Behold the power of Boris Watch – no sooner had I snarked that the crime maps weren’t updated for October yet than they were, er, updated for October, at least for the original pre-Boris site (the Boris site is still stuck at September).  Key point for me is that homicide number – 11 in the month, up from 8 the previous month, but the trend is still reducing to moving average of 12 a month over a five month period (since the peak of 17 in May is now out of the figures – unless there’s a particularly bad month in December or January it’ll drop to nearer 10 when the July peak moves out).  That’s now tracking about 40% lower than in late 2003/2004 and 9% lower year-on-year.

As for the rest, the usual headline figures (theft, knife crime, gun crime) are still falling in with the exception of rape, which is sharply up, although whether this is better reporting or an underlying serious issue (more serious than the perennially important issue of violence against women, that is) is unclear from the bare statistics, as usual.  How are those rape crisis centres coming on, anyway?

The next thing to watch out for is a rise in robbery due to the economic situation – this is a fairly well known effect of recessions, with more people out of work and greater opportunity and incentive to thieve.  With that in mind, I note that suburban Redbridge, Havering, Barking & Dagenham, Hillingdon, Harrow and Richmond have seen fairly sharp rises in robberies over the month, from admittedly low bases. In the city proper, Westminster, Camden, Southwark and Tower Hamlets have also seen increases.  However, of those, Harrow and Richmond are the only boroughs I can find with rising theft over the last 12 months.

I may have to start doing some proper continuous analysis of robbery figures as the recession bites.  Anyone able to give me a lesson in those spiffing online analysis tools Alex used with the BNP data?

 

4 Responses to October Crime Figures Out

  1. Sasa says:

    I spoke to Ken a couple of months ago – just after Ray Lewis was outed. I put it to him that Boris’s crime strategy was going to suffer. He said, hold on, hold on. Don’t judge this man on the crime figures yet. Not even after 6 months. These things take time – we can’t judge him for at least a year or two.

  2. Mathew says:

    Cycle thieves:
    Boris Johnson is just what London’s cyclists have been waiting for all these years.
    He said “I think these people deserve punishment and I’m calling for Sharia law for bicycle thieves.”
    Any stats for cycle theft Tom? I know it’s not important but I’m hoping my bike gets nicked before I’m mowed down by a motorcycle.

  3. Tom says:

    Sadly cycle theft is not split out from general property crimes.

    He really is getting into his Koran, isn’t he? I think someone should tell Thicky Dicky Barnbrook before Boris leads us down the path to dhimmification.

  4. Ian says:

    I beg to differ with Matthew. I think Boris’s trial to allow motorcycles in bus lanes shows that he is far from what ‘London’s cyclists have been waiting for all these years’. I’ve been cut up and undertaken numerous times by these frightening, fast machines. How long before the first serious injury or fatality?

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