Yes, I know, I really need to cover air quality, housing, the Olympics, PPP, shared space and the Policy Exchange debate with Alan Johnson, but first let’s have another of our fact posts where I just bung some numbers up for future reference. In this case, what’s the spread of per-mile costs for bus tenders under Boris. If he’s getting value for money in a competitive market they should stay the same or fall – the yardsticks are:
- £4.65 for double decker routes
- £6.29 for artic routes (probably the comparator we should use for ex-artic routes, therefore)
Naturally these figures are from pre-2008 tenders, so there’s an inflation allowance we need to add in – say £5.00-£5.50 for DD and £6.75-£7.25 for artic/ex-artic routes. So, let’s dig out all tenders since mid-2008 for >£4m annual spend* bus routes and table them up, with ex-bendy routes in bold:
Route Price Price/km Tender Date
521 3,430,918 9.68 5/12/08
38 14,850,000 7.68 5/12/08
14 7,423,735 7.34 13/5/09
139 4,469,070 7.22 19/3/09
16 5,277,306 6.88 19/3/09
476 4,583,857 6.77 6/4/09
189 4,397,755 6.54 19/3/09
345 6,040,504 6.38 15/9/08
74 5,019,131 6.37 13/5/09
49 3,832,862 6.29 28/1/09
242 6,030,000 6.24 6/8/09
316 3,684,606 6.14 19/3/09
259 4,927,125 6.14 6/4/09
76 4,816,700 5.97 6/4/09
344 4,580,350 5.91 16/1/09
205 5,421,230 5.9 20/11/08
414 3,725,917 5.69 13/5/09
8 5,959,738 5.61 20/11/08
48 4,033,198 5.58 6/8/09
148 5,453,000 5.52 19/3/09
35 3,902,983 5.5 15/9/08
221 5,037,200 5.36 6/4/09
55 5,727,814 5.36 6/8/09
277 4,541,614 5.19 6/8/09
57 5,600,477 5.14 18/12/08
86 6,310,311 5.11 20/11/08
65 4,722,998 4.92 18/12/08
237 4,169,000 4.91 9/7/09
56 4,473,195 4.89 6/8/09
213 3,855,463 4.65 18/12/08
381 3,545,186 4.57 13/5/09
34 4,740,260 4.46 6/4/09
281 4,839,013 4.4 18/12/08
235 3,311,655 4.16 9/7/09
111 5,288,000 3.99 21/8/09
From which it’s obvious that the 521 and 38 are something of an outlier – the average big London bus tender over the last year comes in at about £5m and £5.50/km. It’s also obvious that there isn’t really a big move towards cutting the cost over the last year – tenders are the same as they were and possibly a bit more, if anything. The 38 is the highest big route, but still comes in cheaper than the much smaller 507 (which doesn’t make the £4m cut-off) and 521 at £7.71 and a whopping £9.68 respectively. However, the worst value in London on a per-mile basis remains the 9H and 15H heritage Routemaster routes at £12.57 and £10.69, due for retender or contract extension next year.
All of which doesn’t do a great deal to suggest that Boris’s bus policies are geared around value for money.
* Interpreted rather loosely as ‘at least one bid of £4m+ when tendered’
Tags: 3 Comments
3 responses so far ↓
Thanks for crunching those.
A thought – would not the former red arrow routes have a higher cost because they are peak heavy and don’t run evenings and sundays? Hence the equivalent required miles are operated over a shorter number of hours and so require more vehicles (and possibly more staff) than regular routes?
is this just a bus/transport whinge site now? the mayor’s London Plan is empty and his AQ Strategy is dreadful yet these pages seem to want to constantly dwell on the pence per mile and tendering processes for bus contracts etc.
I thought this site was “An attempt to enhance the accountability of the new London mayoralty”?? You really are missing a trick with your bus tender/bendy/route obsession. Shame really, as Boris is really making a pig’s ear of things across the piece… I look forward to your piece on the poor choice of fabric for seats on the new bendy bus replacements!
…but Toby – transport is key to London – and it always has been.
I realise this isn’t the only issue Boris is making a mess of – but it’s really important to see how a ‘green politican’ gets torn to pieces by the wiley transport contractors.
Much of this stuff was done by Ken as par for the course – he just didn’t make any fuss about it. Now we can really see the value in the ability to know what you’re doing with London transport.
Next year there will be more out of work Londoners than in my lifetime – and Boris has just increased the fares on the cheapest form of transport. If you want to familiarise yourself with the ‘bigger picture’ then I suggest you see how this will affect the London Economy and the social fabric within it.